[quote=sdrealtor]Irony is I just googled Taleb and found out he appears to be a never married 51 year old. Sounds like a brilliant guy too. Just one who probably spends a lot of time wondering if I am so smart how come I don’t have everything I deserve.
The rock stars in this world benefit from some level of luck but they are truly different and able to do things with that luck that others can’t. They don’t just wake up and find a pot of gold sitting in front of them. They make it happen on the playing field.[/quote]
Actually, not that it matters or should matter, but Taleb’s married (or was when he wrote “The Black Swan”). And even if he wasn’t, I’m betting that a smart, outspoken guy worth tens of $millions isn’t going to have much trouble rounding up companionship if he wants it. So, I’m not sure what his relationship status has to do with this discussion.
Your “rock stars” are only truly different from the other “lesser rock stars” in that they were, on average, luckier. Again – I want to be clear – I’m not saying that your “rock stars” wouldn’t be successful without luck – I’m saying that the DEGREE of their success, among other successful folks, would be different.
Let me give you a specific example: There’s a guy that runs a boutique investment bank in NYC that’s been incredibly successful – worth well over $100 million. In an interview he recently said (and I’m paraphrasing), “I was a very average investment banker in the ’70s but I was in the right place at the right time in the right sector with the right group of partners. There was nothing that really distinguished us but we got lucky on a few deals and it was off to the races. I seriously doubt I could replicate what I’ve done if I were starting out today – it’s a different world.”
There are a lot of smart, creative, hard-working financiers out there. But what separates the guys that are worth $10 million from those worth $100 million+ isn’t *generally* that the latter were smarter, more creative or harder working (although certainly sometimes that’s the case)… it’s a few small turns of good fortune that steered the latter in the “more fortunate” direction and the former in the “less fortunate” direction. Now, both are still extremely successful. But the degree of DIFFERENCE among this small group is largely a result of randomness.
As Taleb (and behavioral psychologists) likes to point out, humans are very poor at processing and accepting randomness because it’s our desire to believe that we have more control over our lives and various outcomes than we really do. It’s simply human nature to deceive ourselves about randomness.
