sdr, Don’t know if you read

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sdr,

Don’t know if you read this in WSJ on the 24th:
“Bulls of March Look Set to Trade in Their Horns –
Those Who Called Bottom in March Say Prices Look Overvalued”. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125106232283552019.html

“Mr. Grantham sees “seven lean years” of a sluggish market ahead, to atone for what the firm believes was a long era of overpriced stocks, according to his newsletter.”

After 51% run on S&P 500 from March, a correction is reasonable esp in the worst month of year for stocks, Sep. Market is going up with declining volume, usually a bearish sign.

For those who are like charts, a bullish case can be found here: http://www.ciovaccocapital.com/sys-tmpl/200turnuppublic/

Basically the 50 DMA crossed the 200 DMA and slope of 200 DMA turned positive. Emerging markets and copper roared after slope of 200 DMA turned positive in 2003. S&P 500 only went up 69%, so even if we repeat we are only looking at 15% upside from here.

For extensive asset sector breakdown check out
http://ciovaccocapital.com/CCM%20ASD%20AUG%202009%20PDF%20SUN.pdf

I’ve thoroughly confused myself now, so time to hope and hold.

Some conservative funds with good long-term managers for beginners to consider :

Vanguard Health Care VGHCX
Janus Flexible Bond J JAFIX
Oakmark Eqty Income OAKBX
Sextant International SSIFX
Artisan Intl Value ARTKX
TCW Total Bond TGLMX

And the surprise is HighMark CA Interm Tx-Fr Bond Fid HMITX, up 5% for year, tax free which I did buy in Dec 08.