SD Realtor, you are a very good contributor to this blog, and you gave specific helpful information to us all in this thread. I agree with you that you have a mild bias in favor of real estate agents that you don’t try to hide and isn’t hard for even the slow-witted to get past. Hell, half the time when I go to my doctor, I don’t take the prescriptions he gives me, because I draw my own conclusions about what’s good and bad for me. We’re all responsible for our own thinking, and I think your revealing your affiliation in your handle is the best way to take care of the bias issue. I hope you keep a positive personal attitude in the face of some hostility here to real estate agents in general.
Predicting long bond interest rates = tossing coins:
As you know, short-term rates (including those for ARMs) are practically set by the Fed, whilst long-term yields (and hence rates on fixed mortgages) are only influenced indirectly by the Fed. Although I make some of my living from timing purchases of long bonds, not even gurus like Bill Gross can predict much more than 50% of the time whether long rates will rise or fall in the near or far future. But it is true that an increase in daily interest rate volatility on long bonds at one time can portend bigger movements in either direction months ahead. Is that what you were getting at?
