[quote=SD Realtor]Perhaps I should revise. Forecasting costs given a smaller finite set of parameters is possible. Private companies do indeed seem to do it well. Much better then the public entities. Especially when healthcare is involved.
Yes so one statement out of all the other points I made was arguable. All of the other ones do indicate that the way that it is being done now does not work and costs the taxpayers alot of money. Furthermore that the amount that is being heaped on the taxpayers could grow dramatically based on the outcome of future court cases as more municipalities fall by the wayside and look for ways to keep those pension checks rolling.[/quote]
SDR,
Just to be clear, the studies that show how privatization costs more or about the same (while reducing the number of good-paying jobs) do include costs for pensions and healthcare.
And it’s not just annuities…insurance companies of all kinds would not be able to exist if they couldn’t properly calculate costs vs. liabilities.
FWIW, the numbers for “unfunded liabilities” that have been bandied about are no more accurate than the “funded” status of the pension funds. In each case they are dealing with unknowns, with each having a different objective — one to show how bad things could get (numbers from those pushing privatization/capital), while the other tries to show things in a more positive light (labor).
I’d also point out that current pension contribution rates are very much in line with historical norms. The Privatization Movement tries to compare today’s contribution rates with those from the late 90s/early 2000s when many public employers were paying little to NOTHING in contributions toward employee pensions. THAT rate was the anomaly, not today’s rate.
One more thing: I have *always* acknowledged that some changes need to be made. Pension spiking, retroactive pension increases, certain “garbage” add-ons, etc. need to be dealt with. And while I do not advocate for at-will employment for anyone (union or not), I do think that it should be easier to get rid of the few unionized employees who truly are parasitic liabilities.