Since I have been seriously shopping in this area for the last 3 months and studying this area since 2004, I will try to answer your question. This would be a guess just like anyone else. 91914 has held up better then 91913 and 91915. I think this is due to the fact that there is no Mello Roos except in the Miguel Ranch and Woods areas. I’m am only looking at larger homes 3000sqft and over, so I might be wrong about anything smaller and my samples would be from homes 3000sqft and larger. The homes in the Woods area have dropped dramatically and there are REOs listed at 30-40% loss since last/original saler. There are a lot of short sales in that area also. The newer 91914 area east of Hunte and North of Proctor Valley (EH) are just starting to get under way due to the fact that they were sold 2005 and later. Castillian seems to be the first build that is showing distress. I think Quintessa is next and only a few months away from showing distress. Clearstory and Provence will come after that, but I don’t think there will be as many distressed sellers due to loan resets, I think they will just simply walk away because their homes are 20-30% underwater and they will not want to continue to pay when it makes more since just walking away and saving a few 100K.
The gated homes in (Tessera?) off Duncan Ranch have held up until recently. These homes were going for 900k and up. There are about 8 active listings and 2 or 3 are for under 700K. Just last month you wouldn’t see any listings under 700k, I think the lowest was 750k+.
The homes off Duncan Ranch north of Protor Valley (Magnolia Hills?) have also held up pretty good. I have not seen anything under 700K.
The homes in Miguel Ranch that were built 2003-2005ish have not fared as good. There are still some owners in denial in that area, but REO’s are listing in the high 500K- low 600s.
In 91915 and 91913 you can find listings for 3000sqft homes in the low to mid 500s. The Windingwalk area is a mess. There are so many listings in a 6 block radius. Most of them are short sales, but there are some REOs and obviously future REOs.
I do think that this area will drop more, especially the homes (builds) that have held up the most in 91914. I think that homes in 91914 will still be more desirable/valuable then 91913 and 91915, but I think they will catch up to the % drops seen in those Zips. I think this area will probably drop another 20% and will end up down about 40-60% from it’s highs. I also think that you may find $110 sqft for some REOs at the bottom.
