Rich
I’ll have to disagree and dont really believe its an arguable point. First, its important to understand the guy I saw was far more eloquent in laying this out than I. Second, it was said in relation to equity markets (where are far more efficient oin their pricing and to which it is true in a purer sense) not housing. The point is not a specific analyst being bearish or bullish it is the nature of a bearish case vs a bullish case.
With that said, whatever is and has gone on is already priced into the assets current value. The bull always requires things to get better not stay the same. For housing prices to increase, any ill gotten gains must hold as well as future gains piling on top of that. The bear only requires the status quo.
Housing of course is not an efficient market as equities but whether a specific bear calls for another huge leg down, its still a bearish market if nominal prices stay the same or fall only slightly as inflation drops real values. A bear is right when prices stay flat. For a bull to be right things must get better and no matter how good the data is it requires a leap of faith.
