Ren
No argument that the 320 will get to the 500’s but as I said 320 is very different from 400 (25%) as 780 is very different from 900 (15%). You are slinging around big dollars like they are nothing. I remember looking at resales in the 320’s in 1999 and ending up spending 400 for new. We felt like we made a HUGE jump and were skipping at least 1 and perhaps even 2 move-up steps.
Regarding Zebrina, the peak in this area for homes like that was Spring 2004. It is inarguable and I can easily back it up. Some other markets peaked at different times but in the Spring of 2004 you could put what ever price you had the guts to on a SFR in this area and get it. After then you could get a similar price but it took some doing and luck to get it. The market was essentially flat in this area from March 2004 through Spring of 2006.
BTW, the coast has been in decline for at least 2 years it just has been alot more orderly. Personally, my home is down just over 20% which amounts to about 200K from its peak potential. That’s not just getting started.
Lastly, you are backpeddling. Here’s your original quote.
“I just can’t see any reason why they won’t end up at $400-500k.”
To me that says $450,000. Now you are trying to say they’ll go down to the 500’s which while I feel is very unlikely, I certainly wouldnt rule out as impossible. One again the difference between 575 and 450 is HUUUGGEEE!
