Rankandfile,
I think you’ve realized what I have after taking all the analytical skills in the world and realizing that it is a much more complex matter than people understand. Throw in poorly compiled, self reported data and you end up with one fine mess. The truth is, it doesnt matter much what the numbers are as it’s more important which way the numbers are going and at what velocity.
Right now they are going down and the pace picked up the last 4 weeks. This appears to be due to falling demand at the end of the Summer and seller’s concessions that’s its over. Something to watch closely is inventory as we will find out who needs to sell in the next couple months. Those testing the waters should be on the sidelines by October with the real sellers left.
As for how to measure the decline? If you ask me, I’d say it’s going to be pretty easy to say how much we are down after all is said and done. I believe everything will be down fairly uniformly once we hit bottom and settle there for a year or so. Everything moves in relation to each other. As one area gets less expensive, the neighborhood below it must react and the prices fall there. The neighborhood above it needs to react also so it makes sense as a move up or doesnt appear to be enough for the money to the relo client.
I loved the whole price band months of inventory stuff by the other realtor. While I’m sure it provides value if you follow it over time, I chuckled wondering if it tells the sponsor that his home is in the best slot. Funny how bias can be introduced into any analysis without realizing or intending to do so.
