pw, the short answer is: I don’t know. I bought in 2000 and sold in 2004 (long story) and then bought again late last year in a very unusual transaction that protects me from 30% of the downside between when I bought it and 2010 (and the price was already marked down 15% from the seller’s cost basis). If it weren’t for the strange deal I’d still be renting. My advice – worth exactly what you’re paying for it – is that you just keep looking and when you find something you can comfortably afford that you feel is “reasonably” priced (not necessarily the bargain of the century, that is), you buy it. I’d like to buy a condo to use as an office – I rent space right now – so I’m hoping to find something in 2010 or so. I’ve never felt the need to get the absolute best deal in my business life or personal life. I try to find a good deal and leave something on the table. Life’s too short to get caught up in agonizing over every last dime. Just my opinion.
gg, I think the buying trend was started by simple exhaustion of the selling trend. Builders stopped building, employment stopped dropping and people started moving back to SD and it just picked up steam after that. I think I kind of addressed the rent vs. buy decision above. Everyone’s got their own situation. The most important thing is that whatever you’re doing it fits comfortably into your financial picture. As an extreme example, there are plenty of people for whom it makes sense to buy right now. If you have a family that needs to get settled, you’re wealthy and have a lot of liquidity and don’t mind watching your home decline in value by 30% then why wait to buy? Sometimes it’s not worth losing your sanity… especially if you’ve got a lot of cake to begin with.
