prices have been falling in

[Eugene]

prices have been falling in spite of lower interest rates over the past year

your figure, not mine, so accuracy not checked and presumably skewed to make a bullish point

$536k jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% ($2920)
Property tax ($560)
Mello-Roos ($400)
HOA ($100)
—
$3980

Did I forget anything?

will almost certainly buy a hell of a lot nicer home in two years than it does now.

If $4000 only bought you this much in 2000 before we even had a bubble, why do you think it will buy you a lot nicer home in 2010? What exactly is “a lot nicer” than a centrally-located brand new 3500 sq ft home in 4S Ranch? La Jolla, Del Mar, RSF and Coronado taken together have something like 15,000 homes. (In a county with 3 million people and 100,000 millionaire households) CV, Scripps Ranch and 4S Ranch are next in line.