Poway, I agree with all you say, but since I have been proven wrong a few times, I better shut up and see what happens.
Regarding the rally though, the S&P (and mutual funds I assume) really had an incredible rally since June/July. So far so good, but I don’t remember anybody calling this rally, except a few stock perma-bulls. I have covered a few shorts in July, so that was a good move, too. We shall see how long the rally lasts, but predicting a rally to start now (after this move) is as useful as starting to short in July.
I am still learning a lot here, and I am trying to see if we could have something like 1973, it certainly would fit the script perfectly. What was going on then in terms of signs?
What I have heard on this board makes me believe that maybe an end (permanent end) to the bond-rally might initiate a dramatic change in direction (20 year bull-market in stocks/bonds being over).
