You’ll get your 30% drop (and then some, IMO) but you may have to wait until 2009 – 2011.
I don’t do as much gloom and doom posting as I used to because it all seems so obvious to me that it has become boring. I figure the people who can’t see it for themselves aren’t going to be swayed in their opinion and they will get what they deserve.
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2007-08 will be hard on San Diego’s market because of interest rates resetting on over $1 trillion in ARM mortgages nationally (very high % of local mtgs are ARMs) and 3000 condos coming online downtown in an already saturated market. Maybe another 8-15% drop in prices each year due to supply exceeding demand?
On top of declining prices we will have over 10% monetary debasement each year (current rate is 11.5%) so real purchasing power (ie, inflation adjusted value) of real estate could drop on the order of 30-50% before we get into 2009.
