[quote=paramount]It’s not reasonable, no accounting for future recessions for starters.
If were not in a recession right now, we probably will be in the near future based on history.[/quote]
Maybe I’m reading it with a “pessimistic” bias, but I certainly didn’t see anything that would indicate we’re off to the races from here. The reason it looks pretty reasonable is because it shows a pretty stagnant (or declining) market. It’s specifically because of its more subdued outlook that I thought it was reasonable.
It doesn’t see a bottom until 2016-2017, if I’m reading that correctly, and even then, it’s not saying that prices are going to rocket up. It shows prices staying below the bubble peak until 2025, which seems far more reasonable than the Kool-Aide drinkers on CNBC, etc., who talk about the housing market (and the economy in general) as if we are at “THE” bottom and ready to resume rocket-trajectory price increases any day now.
Needless to say, I agree with you about a recession/depression, and think that we never got out of the recession that began in 2000/2001, no matter what the “official” definitions and “expert opinions” say.
