One of the interesting conclusions from this data is that the previous runup (1980’s and pre-internet) took over 3 years to go from peak sales to peak prices. This time, with the internet blogs such as this one and electronic tracking, the public (especially the RE watching public) is much better informed and the time from peak sales to peak price was under 2 years. Better data collecting and more rapid dissemination of that data has resulted in a 14 month drop in the lag time between the variables!! This is huge and will have important ramifications for the timing of the bottom of the market. Instead of a 6-7 year wait, we may only have a 4-5 year peak appreciation to bottom of the market. That is why I feel (and now have data to support) that this downturn will be quicker and more dramatic than the last one (and may even hit bottom in the next 12-18 months. Faster (and better) information leads to faster market revaluation and leads to faster market correction.
So keep up the posts Piggingtons, you are helping the RE industry reach toward a more rational and correct market pricing system.
