The top chart is a theory made by a professor of electrical engineering on the life span of industrial civilization based on energy consumption per capita. He did this back in the late 70s. I’d say he is going to be pretty close in his time frame.
The bottom graph is world oil production. We are at point F. Energy is the ability to do work. You need that for physical growth. Thermodynamics dictates that you can’t “create’ energy. It merely changes form. Of course, we used up all the energy dense, easy to access stuff first. Put another way; there is not one iota of a chance that we can increase energy consumption to increase economic growth anymore and efficiency will only play a small negligible role in drama unfolding before us. Given the condition of the planet in relation to planetary habitability, that may not be such a bad thing in some respects. In regards to how to run the planet’s social and economic systems, it’s another story.
Growth as we know it is over. It’s extinct, don’t look for it, it’s gone. All that’s left is cannibalistic capitalism as the big boys eat the rest and themselves as time goes on. We are in for an epochal contraction and nothing can be done about that. There is no duck shit based algae or any other magic gadget that we have as a plug and play solution to this monumentally stupid and unnecessary predicament we have collectively put ourselves in. And bernake can’t print energy much to his dismay. Turns out infinite growth is not possible on a finite sphere, who would’ve thunk it, huh?
Ironically, at the onset of this massive transition we have done the exact opposite of what should have been done. We were hoarded into 4000 sq foot McMansions and SUVs with massive amounts of debt. haha I does not get more stupid than that. I can’t figure out if it is part of some nefarious plan or just utter insanity driven by short term greed and sociopathic mania of the financial types. Either way, it’s not looking good for the majority of the worlds working classes.
Maybe, if we would have started the transition 30 years ago we could have avoided such a disruptive transition. However, as predicted and modeled back in the 50s, oil peaked in late 2005 and it is too late to avoid a calamity. See Hersh report for details on transitions. He is part of some .gov think tank that was commissioned by the .gov to figure out how long was needed to transition the US. He figured at least 20+ years for it to be smooth. Well, we are at -3 years with a defunct debt-laden monetary system.
Another story that broke this year is that the IEA(international energy agency) was leaned on by the Bush administration to withhold data regarding the oil situation as not to panic the markets. I suspect, they did not want to be seen as invading oil producing countries at the onset of peak oil either. Kinda looks suspect when politicians, whom all happen to be oil men, invade oil producing regions at the beginning of a very oil constrained time, ya know.
These are about most accurate predictions you could make regarding the next 10 years, IMHO
The decade will be marked by many instances of autophagy, in business, government, and in the higher echelons of society, as players at all levels find that they are unable to control their appetites or alter their behavior in any meaningful way, even in the face of radically altered circumstances, and are thus compelled to consume themselves into oblivion, as so many disemboweled yet still ravenous sharks endlessly gorging themselves on their own billowing entrails.
Governments will find that they are unable to restrain themselves from printing ever more money in an endless wave of uncontrolled emission. At the same time, rising taxes, commodity prices, and costs of all kinds, coupled with a rising overall level of uncertainty and disruption, will curtail economic activity to a point where little of that money will still circulate. Inflationists and deflationists will endlessly debate whether this should be called inflation or deflation, unconsciously emulating the big-endians and little-endians of Jonathan Swifts Gulliver’s Travels, who endlessly debated the proper end from which to eat a soft-boiled egg. The citizenry, their nest egg boiled down to the size of a dried pea, will not be particularly vexed by the question of exactly how they should try to eat it, and will regard the question as academic, if not idiotic.
Distressed municipalities throughout the country will resort to charging exorbitant fees for such things as dog licenses. Many will experiment with imprisoning those unable to pay these fees in state and county jails, only to release them again as the jails continuously overflow and resources run low. The citizenry will come to regard jails as conveniently combining the features of a soup kitchen and a homeless shelter. Some towns will abandon the idea of having a fire department and decide that it is more cost-effective to just let house fires run their course, to save on demolitions. In an effort to plug up ever larger holes in their budgets, states will raise taxes, driving ever more economic activity underground. In particular, state liquor tax revenues will drop for the first time in many decades as more and more Americans find that they can no longer afford beer and switch to cheap and plentiful Afghan heroin and other illegal but very affordable drugs. Marijuana smoke will edge out car exhaust as America’s most prevalent smell.
Several countries around the world will be forced to declare sovereign default and join the swelling ranks of defunct nations. There will be a mad shuffle to find safe havens for hot money, but none will be found. Investors around the world will finally be forced to realize that the best way to avoid losses is to not have any money to start with. Despite their best efforts to diversify their holdings, investors will find that they are all long paper, be it stocks, bonds, deeds, promissory notes, or incomprehensible derivative contracts. They will also find that, in the new business climate, none of these instruments make particularly formidable weapons: as the friendly game of rock-paper-scissors turns hostile, they will discover that rocks stave in skulls, that scissors puncture vital organs, but that the paper, even when wielded expertly, just causes paper cuts. Those formerly well-heeled persons who tend to believe that “possession is nine-tenths of the law” will find many extralegal exorcists eager to liberate their demons. In particular, organized crime rings will start using data mining software to identify lightly guarded cabins and compounds in Montana and other remote locations that are well-stocked with canned food, weapons and gold and silver bullion, and start harvesting them by softening the target with mortars, rockets and aerial bombardment, then sending in commando teams with grenades and machine guns. Once the harvest is in, they will expatriate the proceeds using the diplomatic pouches of defunct nations held in their sway.
While the bullion is expatriated, the Pentagon will attempt to repatriate troops from Iraq, Afghanistan and the numerous US military bases around the world, soon finding that they lack the wherewithal to do so, stranding the troops wherever they are, and forcing them to resupply themselves. Military families will be invited to donate food, uniforms, clean underwear and toiletries for their loved ones overseas. American weaponry will flood the black market, driving down prices. Some servicemen will decide that returning to the US is a bad idea in any case, and go native, marrying local women and adopting local religions, customs and garb. Although national leaders will continue to prattle on about national security whenever there is a microphone pointed at them, their own personal security will become their overarching concern. Officials at all levels will attempt to assemble ever larger retinues of bodyguards and security consultants. Members of Congress will become ever more reticent and will avoid encountering their constituents as much as possible, preferring to hide in Washington’s hermetically sealed high-rises, walled compounds and gated communities. Meanwhile, outside the official security perimeter, a new neighborliness will take root, as squatting becomes known as “settling in,” trespassing as “beating a new path,” and fences, walls and locks are everywhere replaced by watchful eyes, attentive ears and helping hands.
