15595 S Rising River Pl
–4,464sqft
–listing price: $899,900
–sold price: $882,500
–price/sqft: $198
just re-read some of the comments back in ’08 about price drops down to $1.1 million. I say $882k is pretty much bottom and at 2000 pricing. not saying everyone can get the price, but this once again shows that Eugene and I were not the only two that got homes at 2000 pricing:
17257 Silver Gum Way, San Diego, CA 92127
–5 beds, 5.5 baths, 5,128 sq ft
–12/05/2000: $815,500
17269 Silver Gum Way, San Diego, CA 92127
–5 beds, 5.5 baths, 5,450 sq ft
–11/09/2000: $946,000
9446 Tea Tree Ln, San Diego, CA 92127
–5 beds, 5.5 baths, 4,790 sq ft
–11/14/2000: $894,500
9433 Tea Tree Ln, San Diego, CA 92127
–5 beds, 5.5 baths, 5,128 sq ft
–11/28/2000: $817,000[/quote]
Although 15595 S Rising River Pl is definitely a new comp killer, I wouldn’t call it 2000 price just yet. Quite frankly, I don’t think it’s that close to 2000 price. Here are the reason why I think it’s closer to 2003 price than 2000 price:
(my assumptions are 2006 & 2007 price in these high end homes didn’t drop very much and there’s a bigger rise between 2000-2003 than the drop between 2006-2007)
http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-BAD8279C-15132_Palomino_Valley_Pl_San_Diego_CA_92127
09/27/2006-$1,275,000
10/03/2005-$1,300,000
09/18/2003-$751,830
(as you can see, even if it drops 10% between 2006 and 2007, this Palomino house is w/in 5% of the 15595 S Rising River Pl in 2007. Yet, even in 2003, it was way down at $751k. If I have to guess, its 2000 would be around $600k if it was build in 2000, assuming price increased about 20% between 2000 and 2003. So, a more realistic 2000 price for 15595 S Rising River Pl would be around $630k, assuming 15595 S Rising River Pl have 5% premium compare to 15132 Palomino Valley Pl)
Using your data point:
9446 Tea Tree Ln
San Diego, CA 92127
and adding another data point of near by house:
17235 Tallow Tree Ln
San Diego, CA 92127
07/19/2007 $1,700,000
07/10/2002 $980,000
11/29/2001 $981,985
as you can tell, these 2 have the same floor plan. 17235 Tallow Tree Ln sold for 10% more than 9446 Tea Tree Ln. Assuming these floor plan have no appreciation between 2000 and 2001, we can assume that 17235 Tallow Tree Ln have a 10% premium compare to 9446 Tea Tree Ln. So, removing the 10% premium, we can safely assume 9446 Tea Tree Ln would have sold for ~$1.5M. Which is a 25% premium compare to 15595 S Rising River Pl, which sold for $1.2M in 2007. Taking that same 25% premium and apply it back to the 2000 price of 9446 Tea Tree Ln, we should be around $670k.
So, based on those two data points, I think 15595 S Rising River Pl 2000 price would be around $630k-$670k. $882k is still well above that range and is a lot closer to late 2003 price.
