No areas were untouched. The properties in Rancho Santa Fe and La Jolla were still among the most desirable in the county but they still declined some. Just not nearly as much as the less desirable market segments.
In general, the areas that will probably get hurt the worst will be those that are farthest from meaningful employment. “Farthest” in this case being measured by commute times as well as distance. Unlike some people here, I don’t think Carmel Valley is at nearly as much risk as parts of East Carlsbad and San Elijo, ’cause of how easy it is to get to Hwy-56 and points south. Depending on traffic you can make it into Sorrento Valley in 10 minutes and Downtown in 25 minutes. Valley Center and Ramona are vulnerable because it takes 30 minutes just to get to a freeway.
The lower end should be more stable than everything above it except for the extreme upper end where buyers are coming in from out of town with cash. I say “should be” but I note the disproportionate slowdon in the lower end at these prices, possibly because of buyer exhaustion.
I would say that older homes will do worse than newer homes in the same price ranges, but the older homes are generally located in areas that were developed first because they were more proximate to employment.
What’s going to be interesting about the new homes is that the developers have been using the same pricing and sales tactics as car dealers – I think it’s possible that some of those buyers may end up taking a “new car discount” after having driven their homes around for a couple years. The base price of a new home is for a model nobody wants, and the retail markup on the upgrades and options is a separate profit center in itself. It’s been my experience that the difference in upgrades packages between homes may start off at 10% or even 15% of the total, but that spread generally disappears in the market within 5 years. So we’ll see how much of a return a homeowner gets in exchange for their $250,000 landscaping costs that includes the outdoor kitchen and “tropical paradise”. It may end up being as little as 10 cents on the dollar.
