Mercedes and Seaward you guys are not alone in the zips you have mentioned and the price points as well.
I think that 92122, 92124, and 92131 have the potentially the highest probability of price reductions in the next 1-2 years out simply because of the current median prices in those areas.
92126 is a bit tougher of a play. The 300k 1200 sf 92126 seems to have hit a support level that is not just consisting of purchases by owner occupants but also of investors as well. So I think it will be challending to see that having alot of play left in to the downside but I suppose anything could happen with an inventory flood.
92129 is crazytown right now. I can see it going back down again but even in the hard slide of late 08 it seemed to find support levels in the high 400s and mid 500s depending on which part of 92129 you were looking in. There are some really strong elementary schools down off of Black Mountain Road that draw alot of homeshoppers there.
Other areas you guys may want to consider could be 92119 or 92124 as well. A little lower price but also lower desired may be 92123.
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I know I am not giving you answers you crave though. I know you really want to know will it be worthwhile to wait. Can I promise you a 15% decline in a year or two? I cannot. I wish I could. If there was not wizard of barney frank I would be more confident. If the market were not manipulate and if the government was not controlled by Wall St I would say yes. Surely unemployment and distress would cause one to say this is a no brainer. I still say that your best bet is a hope of China shutting down the credit pipeline causing interest rate shock. Sorry for not being able to give you a for sure… Maybe in a few months things will trend in a more clear direction. Sounds like you both have some time which is good. Lets see how things look in the spring.
