[quote=meh]but…i remember a co-worker showing me a front page wall st j on tech stocks in 1996 and discussing the efficient market hypothesis with him and trying to tell him (in my very young but authoritative voice) that the market has probably priced in all the risks and benefits to these things. he didn’t listen of course (even though I had gotten the second highest grade in my securities regulation class at a top law school) and made a bunch of money shortly thereafter. 4 years of madness ensued. my education wasn’t worth much in reality.
gold is different, in that (i) where the hell do most people buy and sell it? it’s difficult to get real physical ; and (2) i think people are just just just starting to get the gold story, of why the dollar may not ultimately triumph….there is just so little money flowing to gold and so much elsewhere. i’ve seen goldbug charts on this, it’s astonishing. it was just a take a small diversion of moneys to cause a humpngous stampede. we’re not there yet. it may never happen. but this isn’t the end of some crazy blow off top.[/quote]
I remember having a similar debate in late 1999 about Kozmo.com with an (ordinarily) very astute CPA friend of mine. A former colleague of his had been approached by Flatiron with the Kozmo prospectus and was soliciting investors.
I remember poring over the prospectus and business plan (such as it was) and thinking that it would be nearly impossible to hit the revenue numbers they were projecting. But it was the “New Economy, stupid” and “things were going to be different this time”. My friend lost about $125K in the deal.
Point is, whenever anything is sold as being something other than what it is, watch out. I think in many ways, gold is no different right now. Lots of fear and uncertainty in the markets and gold is being touted as a low-risk hedge. Whenever too many dollars chase too few assets, regardless of market or type, you have a bubble.
