Maybe I’m nuts but I (still) think we’ll see the bottom in 2010-2011 or thereabouts. I think this time around, as opposed to the early-90s, we’re going to see more violent price moves each year going forward as institutions realize that things aren’t getting better and just start dumping properties. But, I think we’ll bounce along the bottom for several years after we hit bottom this time around. A philosophical question: If prices decline 35% peak to trough between 2005 and 2011, and then decline by another 5% cumulatively over the next 3-4 years, where was the bottom? The bottom will “feel” like 2011 but the stats will say it was 2014 (or whatever). I guess what I’m trying to say is that I think the lion’s share of the real price declines will occur by 2011, although there may be some nominal declines thereafter. But that’s just a gut guesstimate, of course.
