Many of you have probably seen this, so I’m surprised it hasn’t come up in this thread: http://www.firstamres.com/pdf/Cagan_FireBurn_1104.pdf
This pdf shows the change in home prices by zip code 1987-2004 (for LA), and it clearly shows the high end led the market in slowing down during the last downturn, while the affordable areas were still on fire.
I understand the arguments presented in this thread describing how the low end drops out, then the middle, then finally the high end, but it is hard to argue with the data.
I emailed Dr Cagan a few weeks ago asking if he planned on updating the document to the present, and he said he might in a few months.
