LBC,
Sometimes I see bullish signs and sometimes I see bearish signs but I just call them as I see them.
NC,
Sure the %age of defaults should be higher in 04 and 05 but lots of buyers during those years will be fine. There are lots more years that will have lower %ages but heck even lower rates of default will have to be considered over purchases over the last 20 years or so due to equity withdrawl. I suspect it will be fairly even among bubble buyers (more early on in the down cycle) and equity pillagers (more later during the down cycle).
