[quote=kev374][quote=flu]Because from all your historical posts, the only time it appears you would be comfortable to buy is an ideal situation in which there is a huge economic demise such that everyone else gets wiped out and housing is 50+% off, [/quote]
you make that statement like it hasn’t happened ever in the past…it’s happened in the very recent past, prices crashed 40% in 2008. Memories are short. It’s happened in the past and there are indicators we are heading in the same direction.
The lady in the video is selling gold but that wasn’t in context to what she was presenting. In addition she just presented some facts and said time will tell what happens. If her data is wrong then it would be make for a better response to refute it specifically than just calling her names..
You debate vehemently against a downturn yet do not provide any facts whatsoever. Please provide hard data as to why you think prices will NOT fall?
Yes, it’s true that I don’t have a crystal ball, but you don’t either. The bottom could fall out tomorrow and real estate could crash 40% again just like in ’08, the truth is nobody can know for sure. But you guys act like the downside can NEVER happen but of course the UPSIDE can because you are all vested in that area… this is not rational thinking, rather it is you who are looking at the situation with rose colored glasses just the the huge number of fools that did so in 2008.[/quote]
I’m only making 3 statements….
1. The real estate crash of 2007 and the one during the S&L crisis in the 80ies all had the recipe of loose lending standards given a lot of people who otherwise aren’t credit worthy the ability to buy homes they have no real ability to pay for.
Home prices might trickle down, but it’s all about staying power…People who weren’t very credit worthy had no way to weather any sort of blip in the economy. Most people are putting at least 20% down, some even more, especially in SoCal. For every one of your peers that is stretched thing, I can point at many equivalent peers who have no problem managing their debt load or have no debt on any of their homes they own. NorCal and SoCal are quite different from rust belt/blighted regions of the US which has no chance of recovering.
2. Home prices didn’t crash 40-50% across the board all over SoCal and NorCal. IT wasn’t a “widespread thing”. It was a widespread thing in particular demographics where again sketchy financing, sketchy buyers with sketchy income was more prevalent. Did home prices crash 40-50% in Newport Beach on average? What about La Jolla?
3. I really don’t understand the fascination of trying to predict a catostrophic crash that *might* happen god knows when maybe in your lifetime, and then basing a majority of one’s financial decisions on that one time event… (Deja vu…)….As I said before, it’s a parodox that I don’t think folks that subscribe to these extreme viewpoints understand….IF that were to happen, you would be just as affected as anyone else that depends on a W2/1099 paycheck. You’re in IT… I think during the real estate bust, you went unemployed for some time. The same reasons why you didn’t buy during the last bust would be exactly the same reason why you aren’t going to buy in the next bust cycle if it happens.
Before you go off an assume I’m bullish. I’m not… I don’t care which way the home prices are going to go. I don’t plan on selling. I plan on milking as much rental income as possible and passing my portfolio to my heirs so they can enjoy an easier life. The exception would be if I can get 3-4x of what I paid for those properties, then I might sell…… I don’t deny a “correction” can happen… I just don’t plan all my financial decisions based on that it will happen. Seems like a losing proposition….
