Your bearishness doesn’t bother me at all. I can find you a residential property that sold for 440k in 2005 that is now listed for 312k and I could probably have for 275k or less today. I don’t feel comfortable dragging MLS data over here. I think it will go to 200k a buyer or two from now. I think it is quite possible this scenario is going to become common place. I am trying to get at where you two think the bottom will be in terms that we piggingtonians can actually have a discussion about?
I think we actually had two bubbles, one caused by the strength of the economy in the second half of the 90’s and early 2000’s which drove the market until the funny money came in about 2002 and proceeded to get crazier. Thats why I tend to agree with you both about the macaroni really hitting the fan. Perhaps time has mitigated half or the first bubble and none of the second. I think we have 1 1/2 bubbles from peak or 2001-2002 prices at worst case scenario unless we are going into a depression, which I really don’t see as long as the US is the world’s superpower.That said I think a BIG WAR is a slim possibilty and all bets would be off for that too. That is about as scientific as I care to get. I am not really putting my pride on the line though with these predictions.I’ll start buying when it makes sense compared to other opportunities and I get a beter feel for the strength of the recession at hand.
Again what do you “super bears” think will stop the market from falling regardless of where that is?