JP Morgan just released some numbers for CA, but it could give us some insight of San Diego’s future:
Assuming Unemployment @ 7%
– CA prices might drop another 10% from now
or that would translate to 44% from the peak
Assuming Unemployment @ 8%:
– CA prices might drop another 24% from now
or that would translate to down way over 50% from the peak
Here it is:
“In a slide provided to investors late last night during a conference call covering its acquisition of Washington Mutual (WM: 1.215 -28.11%), JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM: 47.88 +10.17%) clearly believes that there is further to fall in two key states, as well as nationwide — and potentially much further to fall, depending on economic conditions.
The firm said it current expects home prices nationwide to fall another 8 percent from current levels, assuming unemployment of 7 percent; its estimates for California and Florida, however, were more severe. JP Morgan said that its base-case suggests another 10 percent in price declines in California, while prices in Florida may fall another 16 percent.
The expectations for a further drop translate into a 25 percent peak-to-trough drop in prices nationwide; prices in California and Florida will have fallen 44 percent in such a scenario, the company suggested.
Should unemployment reach 8 percent — the scenario for a severe recession, under JP Morgan’s estimation — those price declines would be much worse. In such a case, California could see home prices fall another 24 percent from current levels, while Florida would drop 36 percent and nationally home prices would fall 20 percent from where they are currently. Such a worst-case scenario would drive an extra $54 billion in losses in the WaMu loan portfolio, were it to pass.”
