My thinking is that you can’t have 90% of the Black vote in polls and expect that more then a few percent of the undecideds to be Black. The math doesn’t allow it.
My guess is 80% of the undecideds vote is White and will vote for McCain or stay home. Also the PUMA vote if rumours are true will give McCain the caucus states.
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My hunch is that you are right about the undecided votes: doubtful more than 1-2% of blacks are undecided. The undecideds, according to several reports, are white, largely uneducated and lean right of center. It is hard to imagine those folks breaking evenly for McCain and Obama.
If the undecideds break in much bigger numbers for McCain, that is not good news for this country, as it means that racism is much stronger than most have realized. Although I must say, one of the irritants during this election has been the double-standard: blacks can support Obama SOLELY based on the color of his skin — and the media boldly and routinely acknowledges this as if it is a given and completely acceptable — but if even a small percentage of whites vote based on skin color, this is perceived as racist. I’m finding it hard to swallow that racism exhibited by blacks is somehow more acceptable than racism exhibited by whites. It’s all hateful and ignorant, and we need to get beyond it — quickly.
The Palin effigy is a prime example. Democrats looked the other way when a white woman was *hung* in West Hollywood, all in good fun (and I might remind you that West Hollywood is overwhelmingly gay, so you’d think their level of tolerance would be higher — apparently not the case). Authorities *persuaded* the perpetrator to take the effigy down after a full week. But when two white men *hung* an effigy of Obama in Kentucky, they were immediately hauled off to jail.
Certainly, there is a historical and inflammatory association with black people and lynching, and those wounds are bitter and deep. But if a double standard is applied, it will only serve to harden the racism buried deep in white people, and in the end, black people will lose.
Anyway, race is a huge problem in this country on both sides of the aisle. And anyone who says differently is not paying close attention.
