[quote=Jazzman]ER I think this misses the point about so-called ‘permabears’. I certainly don’t see myself (or many others) as one thing or the other, but I’ve found it useful to improve my short term memory, so a few jogs from those ‘bearish’ corners is a good thing. Furthermore, I don’t recall anyone saying prices will fall forever, but I do recall many saying prices never fall. For those (bears or whatever) who did buy eventually, it was probably out a sense of despair that the game was rigged and there was really nothing anyone could do about it. I personally don’t believe we are out of the woods yet, because of the overwhelming support for home prices and the swathe of foreclosures yet to clear through the system. I don’t think it has anything to do with being down on the economy, but more to do with being cautious. On the other side of the coin, I don’t see bulls either, just those who took a hammering during the downturn now seeking some false sense of vindication. It’s all a bit childish really.[/quote]
Totally agree with your entire post, and wanted to highlight the bolded part, especially. I’ve been on the RE bubble blogs since ~2003 (back during the WSJ bubble blog), and have met many wonderful bubble bloggers and posters in person over the years. Many of us have indeed purchased in recent years, not because we thought it was the “bottom” of the market, but because PITI/rent parity was reached, almost entirely due to the Fed’s ZIRP, and also because of the never-ending market manipulation at all levels.
This was the big worry of many bubble-sitters in the early years — that the Fed/govt would prolong the downturn with all manner of manipulations so that by the end of it all, the amount of rent paid for all those years would offset the savings made from buying a house at the bottom vs. the peak. Additionally, many of us have families and other issues that made us feel the need to buy sooner rather than later. The manipulators have succeeded, but at least many of us were able to buy well below peak prices, and for those who’ve used financing, they were able to get historically low fixed-rate mortgages. We didn’t win, but we didn’t lose as much, either.
And yes, things will get very, very interesting if/when interest rates ever normalize. In the meantime, we all have to get on with our lives.
I certainly hope you’re not really going to stop coming here, too, Jazzman. I’ve always enjoyed your posts.
