[quote=Jazzman] . . . I bought in a new development in Maui, which recently seems to be doing OK. A few vacation buyers, but the majority appears to be FTBs persuaded with tempting offers of “$1,000 gets you in”. When you speak with these buyers it is very clear many have very little understanding of the market, because bubbles, cheap credit, and high prices are the new normals, and is all they (FTBs) know. . . .[/quote]
I thought it was a good article, too, Jazzman. But I honestly don’t think there is a huge percentage of homeowners “married to their house” in CA. I don’t think the established parts of the state turned over as fast as other parts of the nation, due to Prop 13 and its progeny. Many of the “heirs” who “inherited” these properties have no employment skills or net worth in their own right and couldn’t/can’t qualify to move up. In any case, they wouldn’t (and shouldn’t) “move up” due to having artificially low property taxes, which is all they can afford. Granted, a small percentage of ignorant “heirs” have mortgaged their parent’s property to death and may be in danger of losing it to foreclosure, but I believe these owners are in the minority. I have no doubt that there will be many more “Prop 13 heirs” (Prop 58) in the coming years who will elect to buy their siblings out (if they have any) and raise their families in their childhood home.
There is absolutely no cheaper way to live in CA, ESP in a coastal county.
The vast majority of the owners in CA who currently still have negative equity purchased in the last eight years, likely with little or zero down and an “exotic” purchase $$ situation or purchased in the last 15 years and refied/HELOCed their property to death, IMHO.
The massive new-tract developments in the interior counties of CA which are more than 40 mi from a decent job base are screwed, IMO. This includes the majority of those tracts situated within the counties of No RIV, SB, Stanislaus, interior Monterey, Fresno, SE Placer, Merced, Madera, San Joaquin and NE Sacramento Counties.
The recent new developments in the above counties also advertised in Alameda Co, LA Co and out-of-state billboards and radio stations “$3,000 gets you in” and “Vets 0 down.”
I envision the state’s eternally-distressed interior tract developments possibly eventually being turned over to HUD for Section 8 housing.
I’m divided on whether a High Speed Rail running parallel to SR-99 will bring well-paying jobs thru some of these counties. The jury is still out here, and, in any case, the completion of this proposed project is many years away. Perhaps CSU Merced and CSU Fresno will churn out hundreds of graduates with skills highly sought after which may eventually encourage tech and biotech companies to build campuses there (on much cheaper land).
My personal experience with natives of these counties (as well as those from the other side of the sierras) is that they would *prefer* to stay in their county of origin for a lifetime (to be near family) but cannot find decent paying jobs so migrate to the CA job centers near the coast for employment.
