It’s true that life is a fluid experience, and many things can and do change between the planning phase and execution, but, imo, looking at the stats, the trend of telling kids success is a slam dunk seems nothing short of delusional.
Although we encouraged and supported our kids in everything they did, as they got older, we always leveled with them about what it was going to take for them to get where they wanted to be–especially in the highly competitive fields they chose.
Now, in retrospect, I believe the fact that they took nothing for granted along the way might have been a key factor in helping them attain their ultimate goals.