It seems like there’s a lot of reference to previous business cycles. With the underlying assumption that this cycle will be very similar to the last couple of business cycles since the late 1970’s. There’s strong evidence that business cycles are dependable, given that similar dynamics exist through the various cycles. My main concern about this cycle is that we may not have similar dynamics.
There’s no doubt the Fed will create whatever amount of dollars needed and they’ve done this in the past. So that dynamic is the same. But what about the dynamics needed to begin an economic recovery? Will the rest of the world buy dollar denominated assets because they’re now cheaper? Will all the money on the side lines come in when prices stabilize after declining?
The Japanese put their rate at nearly 0 and they make things the world likes to buy and they still experienced a very protracted period of non-growth. I guess I’m wondering why we may experience anything different or worse?
Does anybody have any theory about how the US economy will recover once the cheap money kicks in?
