It is so nice to hear from other people like yourself who are in the same boat! I am often around family and friends who own and I sometimes even feel guilty that I am not willing to sacrifice my entire life savings, childrens education funds, retirement funds etc. just to buy a house out here. I was talking to a family member the other day and explaining how prices are so high, how we are considering moving etc. They simply could not understand why we would consider moving, and morover kept pointing to other people in the family who are sacrificing beyond their means as examples of ‘people who are making it work.’
I agree with you that information availability is making the game easier for buyers. Do you read this site?
They have great data on inventory levels, and also funny examples of greedy sellers who keep repricing their homes, and others who are going into forclosure.
One other thing that gives me hope is that I simply cannot understand why homes are priced where they are, and no matter what analysis I do, I keep coming to the same conclusions: The only reason homes are priced so high is because 1)Rates have been low, and 2)The frenzy of speculation caused prices to rise. Both of these pillars are being removed right now and I am certain that the TRUE market prices of homes will begin to appear. Sellers are still pricing based on comps (now irrelevant as far as I’m concerned) and acting as if these two factors are still in high gear. Rates are still OK, but rising, and we haven’t seen enough time pass yet for sellers to really get freaked out. For example, with 1000+ homes appearing per month, what will happen in December to the 40% of the sellers that HAVE to sell?
I have yet to see any fundemental, economic reasons why, for example, a home in Bressi Ranch with no yard, poor construction, questionable choice of styles (Colonial style next to Spanish style next to midwestern ranch…WTF?) is priced at 800k. Is the market, which now has over 20,000 homes, dictating this price based on supply and demand? No way! The mad rush to ‘get in’ and make some equity is what caused these prices to rise. Builders raised each phase, and people kept buying even if they could not afford, and the cycle continued.
Throw in the few factors that do support higher prices like a good economy and still relatively low rates, and I believe that we should have prices that are higher than 1999/2000, but nowhere near where they are now. EG: Instead of 800k, that home which would have been 250k in 1999 should actually be around 350-400k.
So the only hope I have lies in my likely inexact and flawed analysis of prices! But what the heck, maybe I will be right:)
