It is sad to see when people can not explain it, then dismiss your question and said that number is insignificant. Or even name calling…. that is really sad. I also see that you are trying to hold your positive attitudes when replying those nasty responses. Good job. (I know it is not easy.) Like some of them said, if you are not happy to see what schizo2buyORnot asked, get off this board. It is a public board, and being a regular does not mean you are the only one that can ask people off this board.
Anyway, I wasn't able to answer your question when I first read this thread, either. But, this morning, Bob Casagrand posted his monthly analysis about the SD market, and he explained why:
The August inventory was 22,989 which gave us an 11 month supply. The months supply is an overall market average, depending on size of home this varies from a low of 8 months supply to a high of 14 months. This will also vary by condo or detached home. In fact condos now have a lower months supply than detached homes. Thru August we have had 55,205 homes listed with an additional 17,198 listed homes that carried over from 2006 giving us a total activity for all list status of 72,403. As high as this number appears it is actually down from 2006 by about 3,000 homes. Clearly fewer people are listing their homes for sale this year. The inventory levels are somewhat caused by the inability to sell due to reduced demand causing homes to stay on the market longer, sort of a piling on effect. The ratio of sold homes to all listing activity this year is 26%, by far the lowest in 5 years, compared to 2003 which had a 72% ratio. This year we have had 30,700 listings expire, cancel or withdraw from the market compared to 3,600 for 2003; this clearly demonstrates the difficulty in selling homes.
So, basically, last year, everyone knew the boom was ending and wanted to cash out and listed their home to give it a shot. This year, they knew the market is terrible, hence, less people listed it, unless they really need to sell. I hope that explain it why the listings in LA or other markets are still increasing (since SD is the leading city into the bear market).
So, are we near a bottom ? I think not. This is probably the first year of real decline and I think there are 2 – 3 years of this in our future.
