Interesting piece JG and I think it is clear that something needs to change fast. IMO the most likely outcome of this war is going to be the division of Iraq into a loose confederation of three autonomous ethnic regions after a significant withdrawal of US forces over the next two years. Democratic wins this November – heaven forbid they should occur – will quicken the calls for withdrawal and we are already seeing policy changes in the White House in anticipation of this.
The real problem we have now is the barbarian tactics of the various ethnic groups against each other and for that we should accept no blame. I’m afraid that there are only two arrangements that will bring partial peace to that area – a strong handed dictator like the one we got rid of or separating the country along ethnic lines. At the outset I was optimistic about the chances of democracy taking root in a unified Iraq, but no longer.
I think history will look back at this as a failed experiment of trying to bring democracy to a people whose culture and attitudes just aren’t ready for it. I believe it was a noble cause that needed to be undertaken, and perhaps the three regions will develop democratic governments. If they don’t, only the Iraqis are to blame. At this point I think we should divide the country in three along ethnic lines and assume the role of defending the regions against outside attack.
