In the early 2000’s we saw recession on its way. Piggingtons was a great source for the fundamental economic forces pushing the country toward a recession. The excesses in housing and lending put us on a very unstable footing. The out of sight leveraging of banks and RE investors cemented the natural deline. When the cost of SFR exceeded what the median income could support it was clear that a recession was on the way. Although it took a few years to really take hold, it came and devastated the American economy, along with the rest of the world. This time around it looks different.
The talking heads are saying we are headed for a recession, but the only real indicator of recession is the inverted yield curve, and that is so manipulated by 10 years of artificially low interest rates it may be meaningless. Other economic indicators like employment and GDP at least on the surface point to a solid economic future. I am thinking that we are not ready for a real recession, and that if any we get a mild fear induced stock market sell off. But . . .
