I’m not going to claim anything about the prices being reasonable because that is irrlevant. Most of your examples are big stretches for the following reasons:
1. Beach properties are a different animal and we know you arent looking for one any way.
2. I see lots of 1997 and 1998 prices which history has told us were the bottom of the prior cycle and not a good starting point.
3. These are asking prices and not sold prices. I can ask $1M for my pencil and be delusional.
You claimed that sellers were asking for 200% appreciation over 2000/2001 prices (which I think we both would agree were reasonably fair). When I look at prices IN THE AREAS I KNOW YOU ARE CONSIDERING (not the examples you data mine to fit your hyperbolic statements which are homes you arent even considering), I see home prices up about 66% from 2000/2001 not anything close to up 200%. I also dont see delusional sellers asking for 200% more than 2000/2001 prices in these areas.
I’m not saying 66% appreciation is fair or reasonable since 2000/2001. However, it represents about 5% appreciation compounded over 10 years. Is there downside risk to current prices? No question about it.
Who cares that some nit wit is looking for $1.2M for a shack on 3rd St? Sellers in your target areas arent basing their expectations or pricing on that. I understand you are frustrated. We are all frustrated. But your fruistrations are leading to distorted views of the market.
