Im a bear, occasional MM watcher, and I dont think you will see 225k median again unless things REALLY REALLY REALLY fall apart. Income, population, and mobility preferences have all changed since 2000 and while I think some of the inflation adjusted numbers used to show this miss a part of the story, they dont support 225k.
I dont think you will see much of a drop from ~350k till the more expensive areas finally start to really readjust.
The thing that could happen to lower prices in MM to the lower half of 200k’s is for more college housing to be built near/on UCSD and SDSU. If the college crowd ever started to disappear from this rental market, you would see rents plumet (and with it property values). I wouldnt hold your breath though, college housing isnt something that is politically popular to build (as in ‘HELL NO we won’t zone!’), and recient ordances like the “mini dorm” rules will only make the rent unaffordability (for college students)problem worse.
