If you look at the report from Global Insights, CA was actually undervalued (compared to historical norms) through 2001 or 2002, so 2000 numbers are technically low. Though, even they do not claim that prices will drop any particular amount, they report the overvaluation as a stress on the market, rather than a target price. With gross overvaluation (>35%) the chances of the median dropping below the trend line during a crash, increases–so you might still get to see your <$300k. Probably depends on the level of spillover into the general economy, thus feeding the vicious cycle.
-one muggle
