If buyers are becoming more savvy it’s about time, but I don’t think that in itself will effect prices much. I’d watch price reductions and if they comprise over 25% of listings, a buyers market may be emerging. Institutional investors probably need more evidence that the market has reached a peak and is about to turn. The risk they face for getting the timing wrong is a long term sentence in ‘cash’ jail. But once they do move it will signal a downturn. I still see quite a lot of investor activity in some areas. If the last few years are anything to go by, inventory is unlikely to increase significantly without some trigger, and for interest rates it’s the same story. I think the more likely scenario is that a combination of factors such a recession, small interest rate hikes, and perhaps a slowing China would trigger wholesale sell-offs and start a panic in residential RE. If we get a bigger correction than we’ve had recently in stocks, and bonds provide better fixed income alternatives, that might tempt some to switch out of RE. It’s very hard to see further than a few months down the road, but there certainly appears to be no shortage of wishful thinking in both directions. The collective will, however, is (naturally) stacked in favor of higher prices. So I see a recession as the biggest, surest threat and history shows they are an historical inevitability every six years or so.
