I would agree. My group and I are definitely classified as rookie status at best. The large groups that we compete against have already made alot of money and already distributed it out to the shareholders. The people we see jumping in and making unwise investments are definitely more rookie in nature and yeah they may get caught in a squeeze. This even holds true for my own group.
Mercedes we have gone round and round many years back on when can a bottom be identified. Clearly some of us missed it when it did bottom out in late 2008 however many piggs did indeed buy a home then. Not necessarly because they thought it was a bottom but because for whatever reason, (the numbers worked out, or they found a place they really liked) they bought. Alot of them even posted about the purchases they made but I cannot recall a single post where any of them thought they found a bottom.
I think looking back to that time we would all agree it was a bottom now, however it was a local bottom. Clearly the symptoms of a sickly housing market still existed then and do today and while we have had a significant bounce, none of us here think this market is healthy by any account.
I have given up trying to make bottom calls and trying to predict what the hell the govt will do next. Most of my analysis now is watching the 10 yr treasury, watching the bids at trustee sale, and studying local submarkets that I have buyers interested in or sellers looking to sell in. The trends in those I have studied (for the most part) seem to be pointing towards a saturation point due to price increases and rates climbing some.
How it looks in the summer… will be interesting to note.
