I thought it made sense for you to buy until I read that you may not stay put long enough. Then this finally put the nail on the coffin:
“We want to keep our options open so when higher-end homes in the Bay area become reasonable we can make the jump.”
Obviously you don’t like Vacaville for the long term! You really want to live in the Bay Area. My advice to you: don’t buy! Even if for some miraculous reason your house does not drop in price, you’ll still have transaction costs to pay when you sell to move to the Bay Area. (But we do know that prices still have a lot to drop, especially in Vacaville.)
Even with a newer house, “ownership” translates to countless trips to Home Depot and hours spent on the yard and other related activities that your landlord should be taking care of. Did you account for this in your rent-vs-buy calculation? House “ownership” really robs you of your leisure time and time with your family, unless you really enjoy gardening, hanging curtains, adding shelves, replacing tiles, etc., etc., etc.
If this house and area are not your first choice for the long term, don’t buy! Keep enjoying the renter’s good life until house prices in your preferred location come down to affordable levels.
