I think the “official” jobs numbers are no better than the “official” inflation numbers that we’re force-fed.
First of all, I know there’s been a huge push over the last couple of years of people into the “no longer seeking work” category. Technically, these people are not unemployed where the stats are concerned.
Second, the “birth/death model” has been adding lots of jobs over the last year to sectors which are obviously shrinking. That’s currently reversing – even in the stats – but it’ll take several more months for that statistical illusion to get reversed.
Third, there’s the “realtor phenomenon.” I read recently that less than HALF of all those with real estate licenses in southern California actually recorded a sale in 2007. Half. Are those people still counted as employed? I’m betting that many of them are.
As with the inflation stats, I’d just take what the “official” number is and add 100 – 200 basis points. That’ll probably get you in the ballpark of reality.
