I think the articles are staying on the conservative side to avoid the risk of being wrong like most people. SD rents will outperform those estimates in most regions in my opinion…especially coastal over the next 2-3 years.
I think you might have chimed in a bit in a recent topic where Rich actually helped me find a chart that went back to 84 and the only times rents did not go up were a small window from around 91-93 as well as about a month of so in 2010 when the increase was zero (not negative though) and the chart even shows past recessions along the way for reference.