I think I found the poor assumption about pent up demand:
“a LOT of 20-30 year olds who’ve had 6 figure incomes the last 8 years”
I don’t have any data to back it up but I believe the number of 20-30 year olds in SD (or anywhere) with an income > $100k is pretty small. I would guess less than one percent of people in that age bracket.