I still think your best bet is to just wait a bit more and save for a larger down payment. Since you don’t need the space yet until kids, and with in-laws living with you, it sounds like a SFH is probably what you really want to be in…in CV as well. I can understand worrying about missing the bottom, but most people here don’t think it will rocket back up so you should have time to buy something which is a better fit long term…As mentioned before, transactions in real estate cost a lot of time and money so I know I wouldn’t buy something short term now, and then when kids come, be forced to find something else quickly again…
I wouldn’t bank on pricing changing too much in 6 months. A lot of the new home builders are really controlling their supply so will only build as much as they can to sell easily. Especially Pardee and CV so you are sorta stuck since they own all? (most) of the land out there. We looked at the Carriage Homes and I think they are still the same price as they were 2 years ago (low 700k? I think).
I’m probably in the minority camp that thinks the market is probably flat/slight down depending on area. There are enough piggs that have bought to make me think that way or it’s “close enough” for all those folks to buy themselves. However, I don’t think any of those bought homes in CV so maybe that area still has some room to fall.
I know the new places in 4S ranch were all selling same day and some of the earlier phases all sold out in an hour so the builder is probably not lying when they say they have enough folks on the waiting list already. Best bet is to just get yourself on the waiting list as well and go during a release day to see how quickly they sell. If you aren’t on the waiting list, you really don’t have a chance to even buy in Dec.
Inventory tends to drop come Sep so your choices become very limited in terms of resale homes so I’d probably wait longer if I was in your shoes…
Lastly, don’t worry too much about timing the exact bottom. No one can do that anyways, but from reading about your situation, you don’t really “need” more space or a SFH yet so until you do, might as well watch or rent instead, then save more now for something which will be a better fit maybe in a year or 2 instead and plan to stay for a longer time afterwards.
