I see where the SD realtors are coming from. You all have a front line perspective and share that data. The housing debate tends to be more emotional than other market debates due to the nature of the product. Your talking about our castles here. On one side you do have the perma bulls and now I am seeing a trend of perma bears on the other side. This is another way of saying we have ideologues on both sides. I think that happens due to the nature of the product. The realtors are confirming that yes people are buying in the face of these fundamentals. I get frustrated when I read those post but i don’t doubt that its true. I was recently in Michigan (talk about a housing bust) and there were still exurbs of Detroit holding up just fine. This is nothing out of the ordinary in a housing correction.
Personally what I am watching is the disappearing food chain. The bottom of the market has dried up and it is getting worse. I guess what you see in the more desirable areas as being reported by the realtors is the last vestiges of a pipeline that was once overflowing. If you take out the bottom of the market and combine that with a net out migration of “monied” population then it is safe to say there is not much entering the pipeline right now. That takes time but it will be felt eventually. IMO I think you are going to start seeing this more concretely in the 3rd and 4th qtr of this year. 2008 is going to be a very tough year for all segments of the market.
