I read Rich’s analysis as the why gold is not in a bubble. And I would agree based on fundemental analysis rather than chart analysis. If you looked at house price charts, they dont look too different from gold from 2001 to 2006.
From a fundemental aspect, it’s difficult to value gold, but I think that the cost of extraction/production is a fair place to start. The break-even for gold is $500 to $600. So anything above this is a premium for what someone would consider it’s future value or hedge against currency devaluation/weakness/instability.
So, by my way of thinking(suspect at best)if gold is selling for say $900/ounce, then there’s a $300 premium for it. So you’re kind of betting that the currency or US$ has got some devaluing to do in the future. Hopefully sooner than later.
One caveat about this analysis is that if energy prices decrease, the cost of gold extraction will decrease as well since extraction is energy intensive.
At any rate, the cost of production indicates to me that gold is not in a bubble. However, If oil prices continue to decrease and the US$ gains stregnth, the premium for gold should decrease as a result. But, how long can these two factors contunue?!
In this evironment, being liquid has a lot of appeal to me as opportunities are coming and houses are still decreasing in price. You can always rent. Why buy a house and hang-up your money in a devaluing, illiquid asset?
