I moved from the east coast about eight months ago. I’m prepared to buy and have been looking for about eight months. However, I’ve seen enough price reductions and increased inventory that I’m going to ride this one out for a while to see what happens. I really don’t think that we’ll see a 40-50% reduction as some people think. I could realistically see 20% across the board with some larger increases in certain vulnerable areas (such as rancho carrillo, san elijo, etc.).
I think that “good deals” are a bit sporadic at this time and prices have not uniformly dropped (even within a particular neighborhood). I think there are many people who bought houses two to three years ago and have already counted on a 10-20% appreciation rate per year and have priced their houses accordingly. It’s going to take a while for reality to set in for these people.
That being said there are significant price reductions within Rancho Carrillo. I’ve seen numerous houses linger on the market and owners have dropped prices by 10-15%. I think that Lennar at Bressi Ranch is willing to accept offers below asking price. Fortunately Bressi Ranch is in Carslbad school district; unfortunately Bressi Ranch houses are packed so close together that they may as well be townhomes. Never mind the fact that it is in the flight path for Palomar airport (the busiest single strip airport in California). I don’t know if developments in La costa greens and la costa ridge are offering incentives (I have no doubt that they eventually will). As I have stated previously it does not make much sense to me to pay a Carlsbad price for these homes when they are in the SM school district.
Other areas in Carlsbad that are worth considering that are good neighborhoods are Calavera hills and Aviara. Personally I like Aviara; it’s a little pricey for me given the size house I’m looking for. However, I’m optimistic that, given time, prices will adjust lower such that I can get what I want.
