I like 50% a fair estimate, but agree with Bugs that there will be variables by community but overall it will be close to 50%. I think the more desirable areas built pre-bubble will see the lowest decline in percentage and be at those levels for the shortest amount of time, but at the same time, waiting for bottom, I would hold off on setting an exact dollar amount for re-entry, we are in a paradigm shift. There are too many unanswered questions, there is no historical model for the cycle we are in, these are interesting times, to say the least.
My personal favorite post of Bugs’ (and one that has saved me at least 100k to date) was where he outlined a “knife catching prevention diet” of sorts and how every time you think things have reached re-entry prices, evaluate the inventory numbers, wait 6 or 8 weeks and see if thing went up or down in both price and inventory. This ship won’t turn around in two months and buying within two months of the bottom won’t be so bad so it is a good plan, one that prevents you catching a falling knife and from missing out on that same La Costa/Encinitas place for 500k, if that happens to be in the cards. It is more likely that is a possibility than having it shoot up to 650k within two months of you spotting it at 600k.
