I kind of agree with sdrealtor as well. I do not disagree that there is alot of potential for heavier drops. However guys read into the arguments you are relying on. I read alot of this or that HAS to happen. It seems like there is alot of hope in these statements. That this market HAS to crach because all of these foreclosures HAVE to happen. Or the economy HAS to collapse because real estate is so intertwined in it. The S&P HAS to crash in 07. What happened to all of the posts about the 25k inventory levels we were supposed to see?
This is what is most troubling to me when I read these posts is that they take facts and then extrapolate them to a disaster that HAS to happen. That is unavoidable. That lenders and big money and maybe even the government will not do whatever they can to avoid it.
Hey I am a bitter renter, don’t get me wrong. Nor do I depend on real estate for my livelihood as engineering is my primary means for survival. I WANT prices to go down as I am damn tired of renting and like other posters have a wife who has run out of time and patience. I THINK that we will see the down cycle continue over a long measured cycle that will take a few years. I also believe and have said over and over again, that this decline will produce more marked variations in neighborhoods. Just like the runup was pumped by cheap money, there are neighborhoods where a high number of homeowners are not distressed and will simply ride it out. Then there are other neighborhoods that will be hobbled drastically by high foreclosures. Yes the buying pool will be reduced but lemme tell ya guys, 100% financing is still out there and people ARE getting loans.
So like all the posts, mine is just speculation, if I am wrong and it does dump, then I will be happy because I will be able to buy sooner. I have been busting ass, working 2 jobs and building a cash pile just for that reason. So yeah, the indicators are all looking good for a crash, and the sub prime and alt-A lenders are feeling heat. Yet the stock markets, which always lead the way regarding the economy, which I trust more then anyone on this site, and the inventory levels for San Diego, as well as the availability and pricing of homes in neighborhoods where I want to live, (as opposed to those in Escondido or Lemon Grove) tell me a different story.
