I keep trying to do a little math here. My recollection is that sales are running at under 2,000/month for resale homes + condos.
If that’s the case, some other thoughts: The short sale monitor has 40% of inventory as short. I think there is double counting there, but even if it’s 20%, that’s over 3,000 short sale listings.
Then, assuming The NOD/NOT ratio continues to hold, we’ll have 2K NOT’s hitting inventory every month.
So, we are approaching the point at which the number of NOT’s going into the pipeline is higher than the number of sales coming out of the pipeline.
On the assumption that the banks are going to dump this stuff, we have some really massive pricing declines that are going to materialize this spring selling season.
Certainly many of the NOD’s and some of the shorts are one and the same, but my bet is that well over half the transactions in the next six months will be shorts + REO’s (wold love feedback from those more in the know here).
Qualitatively, I live in RB, and have seen 3 or 4 listings as short or REOS near where I live (these have been sporadic at best previously), and being priced aggressively (10-20% below comps). I’m also assuming that much of that NOD/NOT growth is the blob spreading beyond East County.
This is getting very interesting-low rates and rebate checks notwithstanding.
